嘉宾简介

金瑞基金首席投资官

主要观点
  • 低汇率波动+高收益,中国债券市场对全球投资者具有吸引力
  • 部分中概股在美国市场没有得到应有估值
  • 复苏阶段,逆全球化会对全球经济产生负面影响
  • 投资前要做好调研,坚持多样化投资
低汇率波动+高收益,中国债券市场对全球投资者具有吸引力

金融界:为什么金瑞基金专注中国市场而不是其他新兴市场?

Brendan Ahern:中国以40%的权重领先MSCI新兴市场指数。从数量上看,中国企业代表了1404家中的704家,而第二名的韩国只有110支股票。一旦三个突出的问题得到解决后,A股纳入MSCI,中国市场的比重很容易就会增加到超过50%,甚至是60%。随着中国占比的增加,全球投资者都需要一个能够跟踪中国经济和资本市场的伙伴,一直关注中国市场的金瑞基金希望能获得大家的信任。

金融界:三个问题是指什么?

Brendan Ahern:第一,MSCI中国A股指数期货。近期MSCI与港交所宣布将有37只期货及期权合约分别追踪多个MSCI亚洲及新兴市场指数,但是A股指数不在其中,不过我们相信下一只就会是了,只是时间尚不确定。

第二,T+0。港股通实施T+1,而全球交易的标准为T+0。中国A股的资金来源为T+2市场,这是有问题的,尤其是对于被动投资者而言。

第三,中国大陆和香港的假期不统一,交易日存在差异。

金融界:2019年,你发布了一篇题为“不寻常的收益率:中国是低收益率世界中的罕见高光”。你现在还这么认为吗?

Brendan Ahern:全球央行都在降息,降到非常低的水平。不论是相对而言,还是绝对数值,中国的债券市场的收益率都非常具有吸引力。另外,人民币相较于其他货币也非常稳定。这样低汇率波动、高收益的罕见组合,让中国债券市场对全球投资者都很有吸引力。

部分中概股在美国市场没有得到应有估值

金融界:你对SEC官方警告投资者要警惕中概股有何看法?

Brendan Ahern:所有的股票投资都是有风险的。PCAOB每年要求企业提交经审计的年报可以在一定程度上消除风险,比如安永在瑞幸的年报审计中发现了财务造假。PCAOB已经存在了很长时间且是全球标准。风险是显著的,回报却经常被低估。你会相信IPO后的网易已经超过亚马逊了吗?很多中概股的表现(像美国企业)一样优秀,因为他们在全球范围内都富有创新。

金融界:近期有传言说很多中概股都考虑回港二次上市,已经有几家公司这么做了,如:阿里巴巴、网易、京东。你怎么看这个问题?现在是中概股回港的好时机吗?

Brendan Ahern:在过去三年的时间,阿里巴巴的盈利已经翻倍了,但是股价翻倍了吗?这是因为中概股的股价没有基于基本面,而是基于中美贸易的新闻。阿里巴巴回港上市可以让估值更准确,同时美国市场也能从中重新估值。

复苏阶段,逆全球化会对全球经济产生负面影响

金融界:很多人都在担心新冠疫情会加速逆全球化。您认同这个观点吗?如果逆全球化真的发生,中国应该做什么?

Brendan Ahern:贸易战证明了全球经济,新冠疫情证明了我们是如此息息相关。在后疫情时代的复苏阶段,脱钩、贸易保护主义、孤立主义会对全球经济产生负面效应。全球第一大经济体和第二大经济体需要更多的交流。

金融界:你如何定义“伟大的企业”,有什么标准吗?

Brendan Ahern:我们投资了很多在海内外交易所上市的优秀中国企业。这些公司和海外同行都有很多相似的特点,如:CEO。企业文化总是从上至下形成的,这凸显了企业领导力的重要性。那些位于大趋势最前沿的企业可以执行策略从而快速成长。执行就像机遇一样重要,这也是为什么投资者把它放在衡量管理能力的重要位置。

投资前要做好调研,坚持多样化投资

金融界:在过去几年里,有部分专家担心ETF的泛滥会带来严重的危机。对此,你有什么看法?

Brendan Ahern:ETF有非常多的正面贡献,这解释了过去二十年它的快速累积和资产增长。虽然大部分ETF为股票市场带来了增量,但还有很多ETF运用了更复杂的交易策略。投资者应该在投资任何产品前,做好研究调查。

金融界:你对中国投资者有什么建议?

Brendan Ahern:多样化是一个经常被投资者忽视的优良品质。除非你能准确地预测未来,在一项投资上孤注一掷会带来毁灭性的后果。控制亏损和找到好的投资标的一样重要。制定投资计划和策略,可以让投资者在不论亏损还是盈利时都保持理智。

采访原文

Q: Why would KraneShares focus on Chinese market rather than other emerging markets?

China dominates the MSCI Emerging Markets Index with a weight of 40%. Numerically Chinese companies represent 704 of the 1,404 stocks within the index compared to South Korea, the second largest country, has just 110 stocks. China’s weight is apt to grow to more than 50% or even 60% due to the inclusion of Chinese A-shares once three outstanding issues are addressed. As China’s weight grows in benchmarks, global investors need a partner to navigate China’s economy and capital markets. KraneShares hopes to earn investors’ trust by providing a balanced perspective due to our singular focus on China.

 Q:What are the three outstanding issues?

· MSCI China A futures – MSCI and HKeX recently announced 37 MSCI indices will have futures listed on the HKeX. China A was not among the 37 though it is believe China A will be the 38th though timing is unknown.

· T+0 – Mainland China and Connect trades settle on the day of the trade while trade day plus two is the global standard. This is problematic as funding a China A trade requires funding from a T+2 market. This is a problem for passive investors.

· Alignment of HK and mainland holiday schedules

Q:In 2019, you published an article named 'Uncommon yields: How China is a rare bright spot in a world deprived of yield.' Do you still hold the view now?

Globally central banks have lowered interest rates to exceedingly low levels. China’s bond market offers attractive yields on a relative and absolute basis. Additionally the renminbi has been exceedingly stable relative to other countries’ currency. This rare combination of yields and low currency volatility make Chinese bonds an attractive investment for global investors.

Q: What do you think of the warning sent by SEC that investors should be careful about investing US listed Chinese companies?

All stock investing involves risk. The PCAOB’s inability to receive the audit papers of US listed Chinese companies wouldn’t diminish this risk as Ernest & Young discovered the Luckin Coffee fraud during the annual audit. The PCAOB has lingered for far to long as it is a global standard.  While the risks are evident, the rewards are often understated. Would you believe that NetEase has outperformed Amazon since its IPO? The performance of many US listed Chinese companies are equally impressive while the companies themselves are among the most innovative globally.

Q:Recently, there are rumors indicating that some US listed Chinese companies would take addition quote on the HK Stock Exchange. And several companies already do that, like Alibaba, Netease, JDcom. What do you think of this phenomenon ? Is this a proper time to do this?

Alibaba’s revenue has doubled over the last three years but has the stock doubled? It hasn’t because the US listed Chinese companies aren’t trading on their fundamentals but on US China trade news. Alibaba’s decision to relist in Hong Kong will allow for the stock to be properly valued. The US stock will benefit from this rerating due to the fungibility between the US and HK stocks ie one can convert from the US stock to the HK stock and vice versa.

Q:Many people are worried about that Coronavirus may promote anti-globalization. Is it possible from your perspective? And if it does happen, what would China do?

The trade war proved we are a global economy. The coronavirus has proven we are a global community. Decoupling, protectionism and isolationism would have an adverse effect on the global economy as we navigate a fragile post quarantine recovery. Ultimately we need more communication not less between the largest and second largest economies.

Q: For several years, part of experts have been considering that 'Will ETF proliferation destroy the world?' What do you think of this question?

ETFs have many positive attributes which explains the rapid adoption and asset growth over the last two decades. While the vast majority of ETFs provide broad exposure to stocks, there are ETFs that employ more complex strategies. Investors need to do their due diligence before buying any investment product.

Q:How would you define 'Great company'? Do you have any standards?

We invest in many great Chinese companies listed on domestic and foreign exchanges. These companies share similar traits to their global counterparts such as a CEO who founded the company. Corporate culture always flows from the top which makes understanding a company’s leadership critical. Companies at the forefront of a significant trend in behavior can allow them to execute a strategy resulting in rapid growth. Implementation is as critical as opportunity which is why investors place a premium on strong management.

Q:Any advices for Chinese investors?

Diversification is an often overlooked positive investor attribute. Unless you can predict the future “going all in” on an investment idea can result in catastrophic results. Cutting losses can be just as important as finding winning investments. Having a game plan and strategy allows one to eliminate emotions when results are positive or negative.

栏目介绍

《环球大咖》是金融界网站打造的访谈栏目,主要访谈对象为海内外知名经济学家、学者、上市公司高管、资深市场人士等,力求拓展信息,传达价值,感受睿智,折射资本前沿最真实鲜明的映像。

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