嘉宾简介

Kurt Bayer曾任奥地利财政部副部长,主要负责经济政策和国际金融机构。此前,他供职于奥地利经济研究所,负责应用经济学研究。同时,他还是国际复兴开发银行董事、 欧洲复兴开发银行董事、维也纳国际经济研究所高级研究员、 独立经济政策顾问。

主要观点
  • 欧盟“疫后重建基金”减少无偿赠款令人失望
  • 美联邦政府和各州之间毫无沟通协作
  • 全球经济需要向无碳经济转型
  • 此次经济危机会一直持续到2021年

金融界:欧盟成员国一致达成7500亿欧元救助协议——“疫后重建基金”。对此,你如何评价?

Kurt Bayer:总地来说,欧盟27国决定联合起来帮助那些经济遭到重创的国家是件好事。不过无偿赠款让我有点失望——原定规模5000亿欧元的无偿拨款,在谈判后额度降为3900亿欧元,原因是深受疫情影响的国家负债过高,已经无力承担更多债务了。但对这些国家来说,赠款是首选。

金融界:你如何评价美国应对经济危机措施的有效性?

Kurt Bayer:美国先后推出了高达2万亿美元的援助计划。不错大部分措施都是为了刺激经济、刺激需求,忽略了公共卫生。联邦政府和各州之间毫无沟通协作。

金融界:很多人担心后疫情时代会出现全球脱钩、保护主义和孤立主义。上个月,Ray Dalio在他的演讲中提到“全球化将转向自给自足、局势会更紧张”。您认同他的观点吗?全球化会发生逆转吗?

Kurt Bayer:全球合作是个好东西,特别是在解决国际问题时。在过去的几年里,合作已经开始减少了,不利于全球发展。有关气候变化、疫情、稳定全球经济、打击恐怖主义、反洗钱及逃税等方面的全球合作是有必要的。我认为全球化正在逆转,因为各国都在追求自给自足,而且对自己福利的追求超过了对全球的福利。

金融界:全球经济有可能在三季度复苏吗?

Kurt Bayer:我认为不可能。几乎全球都在实施封锁,这破坏了许多经济体的供给侧,而且不可能很快恢复。很多企业在这样的封锁中是无法生存下来的,全球价值链已经被破坏了,很多人失业而且很难找到下一份工作。这场经济危机会一直持续到2021年,而且也无法恢复到2019年的GDP水平。

金融界:全球经济的重点和难点是什么?

Kurt Bayer:全球经济需要向数字化“绿色”即无碳经济转型。气候变化的影响随处可见——西伯利亚的永久冰冻带、冰川、北极的融化,非洲、南亚的干旱,以及洪水、山体滑坡,随之带来就是缺水国家的移民。仅由成本驱动的外包和供应链已经让全球开始抵制全球化了,因此环境和社会因素必须优先考虑,优先于成本。

金融界:对政策制定者和投资者有什么建议吗?

Kurt Bayer:对于投资者我没什么好说的,我认为他们所关心的利益已经把全球经济推向不可持续的方向,这既包括了社会意义方面(平均工资的下降、工作环境恶化),也包括自然环境方面。对于政策制定者,他们必须站出来勇敢地面对既得利益者,既得利益者已经以牺牲环境和社会为代价获得了大量财富。

采访原文

JRJ:EU leaders have finally reached a deal on a 750 billion plan to reconstruct the region's pandemic-stricken economies. How do you assess this proposal considering its detailed operation?

In general this is a positive development, since the EU-27 managed to put together a package to help the most stricken countries. However, it is disappointing that the allocation of grants (EC proposal 500 bill) was reduced to 390 bill, because the most affected countries all have already very high debt ratios and cannot take on more debt. For them grants are the preferred option.

JRJ:Do you think that governments in the United States are dealing with this economic crisis in an effective way? 

The US has put up around 2 trill $ in rescue packages. However, this is mainly general business cycle stimulus, not directed towards public health, but rather general demand stimulus. There is little coordination between the federal government and the states.

JRJ:Many people are worried about decoupling, protectionism and isolationism in the post-pandemic era. Last month, Ray Dalio said that the principles of autarky and tension would be our future environment. Do you agree with him? Will globalization reverse in the future?

It is my opinion that global cooperation, especially with respect to solving global problems, is a good thing. During the past years there have been reversals in cooperation, to the detriment of the citizens of the world. Cooperation would be required with respect to climate change, the pandemic, stabilizing the global economy, fighting terrorism and money laundering, tax evasion, and many more. It is my contention that globalization is in reverse gear, with countries pursuing self-sufficiency, and promoting their own interests over global welfare. 

JRJ:Do you think that global economy will be able to recover in the third quarter of this year? 

No, I do not think so. The nearly universal global lockdown has damaged the supply side of many economies, they cannot be turned back on like a light switch. Many businesses cannot survive the lockdown, global value chains are disrupted, many workers are thrown out of work and will not easily regain jobs. The economic crisis will last well into the year 2021, and even then the global economy will not reach its 2019 GDP level.

JRJ:What are the priorities and difficulties for global economy?

The global economy needs to reorient towards a digitized "green", i.e. carbon-free economy. The effect of climate change are visible everywhere, e.g. the melting of the Siberian permafrost areas, of glaciers, of the arctic; the droughts in Africa and South Asia, the floodings and landslides, the ensuing migrations out of water-scarce countries. The effects of only cost-efficiency-driven outsourcings and supply chains have turned the world populations against globalization, thus environmental and social considerations must take precedence of cost efficiency.

JRJ:Any advice for the policymakers and investors?

I have no advice for investors, since I feel that their interests have led the world economy into this unsustainable direction, both socially (average wages falling, working conditions deteriorating) and environmentally. Policy makers must stand up to vested interests who have reaped large profits at the expense of the environment and society.

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