嘉宾简介

Graciela Chichilnisky博士是哥伦比亚大学经济学和数理统计教授,Global Thermostat的联合创始人兼首席执行官,也是除碳技术(可用于逆转气候变化)的共同创造者。该技术被《 MIT技术评论》(MIT Technology Review)选为2019年十大突破技术之一,该名单由Bill Gates策划列出。另外,Chichilnisky博士是政府间气候变化委员会的主要作者,该委员会因其在决定气候变化的世界政策的工作获得了2007年诺贝尔奖,她还深入参与了《京都议定书》的制定,在2005年成为国际法。

主要观点
  • 只有公共卫生措施可以解决当前的经济衰退
  • 复苏是经济和公共卫生共同推动的
  • 后疫情时代,人类必须改变对待动物的方式

金融界:疫情会彻底改变我们的生活方式吗?如:有些工作可能会消失,人们会减少不必要的外出等等。

Graciela Chichilnisky:这次疫情对经济、社会都有着重要且深远的影响。远程办公会持续下去,因为更多的公司会首先保证员工的健康、安全。出差可能会增多,但是想要恢复到疫情前的状态需要3-4年的时间。

金融界:你认为欧美政府处理经济危机的措施有效吗?

Graciela Chichilnisky:美国处理危机的措施是无效的,欧盟要好得多。不过,无论如何这样的问题是非常复杂且难以处理的。

金融界:上个月,美国宣布会开始购买合计750亿美元的企业债。有学者指出这是用纳税人的钱去拯救部分濒临破产的企业。你是否认同这样的观点?美联储激进的措施会有效吗?

Graciela Chichilnisky:我认为会有效。美联储采取激进措施是非常有必要的。不过,中短期来看,只有公共卫生措施可以解决当前的经济衰退。

金融界:你认为经济复苏会是什么形状的——V、W、U?

Graciela Chichilnisky:经济复苏很难用单一的形状衡量。任何复苏都是经济和公共卫生共同推动的,这是我们必然要经历的复苏之路。

金融界:很多人担心后疫情时代会出现保护主义、孤立主义。Ray Dalio在之前的演讲中也提到过未来局势会更加紧张,且更加自给自足。你认同这样的观点吗?

Graciela Chichilnisky:很难预测后疫情时代孤立主义会不会盛行,但是可持续发展经济学会盛行。我们必须改变对待动物的方式,因为这是当前疫情的诱因,也会是未来更严重的流行病的诱因。另外,素食必须被更多地考虑,不吃肉时人体排出的二氧化碳可以减少20%。

金融界:对政策决策者和投资者有什么建议吗?

Graciela Chichilnisky:投资者要更多地参与进来,并为到世界经济的可持续道路添砖加瓦。每个人都知道要这么做,但实际上做得不够,这一点很快就会暴露出来。政策决策者必须要引导市场,促进可持续的、公平的世界经济增长。除此以外,别无他法。

采访原文

JRJ:  Would the pandemic change our daily life forever? For example, some jobs may disappear, and people may prefer travelling less.

The pandemic will definitely have significant long-term economic and social effects. Remote work will likely continue, as more companies evaluate how to best keep their employees safe. Business travel will likely resume, but it won’t be for another 3-4 years before it is back to what it was pre-COVID-19.

JRJ:  Do you think that governments in Europe and the United States are dealing with this economic crisis in an effective way? How do you assess the measures that are being taken?

The United States is not effectively or appropriately managing the crisis. The European Union is dealing with the crisis much better. However, the problem is complex and difficult to manage in any case.

JRJ:  Few days ago, Fed announced that it would start buying corporate bonds, with a total amount of approximately $75 billion. There are some comments pointing out that this is to save some companies with taxpayer's money. I wonder if you are agree with this perspective? Will the Fed's aggressive measures work?

Yes. Aggressive measures by the Federal Reserve are needed and will work. However, in the near- to medium-term, only health solutions will overcome the economic recession we face.

JRJ: According to the recent prediction by IMF, we knew that coronavirus crisis was much more severe than the 2008 financial crisis, which almost becomes a consensus. But how fast will the economy recover is still a question. There are many hypothesis of economics recovery- V,W, and U with flattened bottom. So what is your opinion about the recovery?

The recovery cannot be viewed as having a single-issue fix. Any recovery will be both economic and medical, which is the path we should be on moving forward.

JRJ: Many people are worried about decoupling, protectionism and isolationism in post-pandemic era. Ray Dalio held the view that the principles of autarky and tension would be our future environment. Do you agree with him? What do you think of this issue?

It is difficult to predict whether isolationism will prevail in the post-pandemic era. In part yes, but not as an overall strategy.  In the post-pandemic world, sustainable economics will prevail. Our treatment of animals MUST change, as it is behind this and future pandemics, which could be much worse. Additionally, vegetarian eating must also be considered. Avoiding meat as a source of food can, by itself, reduce about 20 percent of human emissions of CO2.

JRJ:  Any advice for policymakers and investors?

Investors must be as involved as possible and help create a new sustainable path for the world economy. Everybody knows this, but the reality lags and will soon expose itself. Policy makers must guide markets and promote sustainable and equitable forms of growth for everybody in the world economy. There is no other path to the future.

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