- 序 -
Elizabeth C. Bogan：我不认为美联储考虑降低联邦基金目标利率意味着金融危机即将到来。相反，美联储正谨慎地试图保持长期扩张。由于我们现在不存在通货膨胀的问题，美联储会在需要时通过降息刺激经济。
Elizabeth C. Bogan：我将美国保持经济增长归因于创新浪潮，而创新浪潮又得到了自由社会的鼓励。自由社会意味着从一开始就强调公共教育和多元化移民，这使新的思维方式不断被创造。除此以外，美国银行向任何他们认为可以获得贷款回报的人提供贷款，经济效率推动了经济增长。需要补充的是，这里的银行业传统主要是向公司而不是州和地方政府提供贷款。同时，私营部门在蓬勃发展。
Elizabeth C. Bogan：未来十年的某个时候将会出现衰退。但是，只要我们的政府不试图过度引导资本或过度征税，美国经济增长就可能再次发生。
Elizabeth C. Bogan：改革开放激励中国企业家创造了令人惊叹的，连续几十年10%的经济增长。目前中国的经济情况可能只是放缓了它成为世界领导者的脚步，但并不会影响中国的发展和进步。我不是中国政府政策的专家，所以并不适合发表评论，只能从较为个人角度简单谈一谈自己的想法。
JRJ:Monetary policy in the world’s major economies seems to be loosening， and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at an interest rate decrease at a recent Federal Reserve meeting. Looking back on history， opening the interest rate reduction cycle generally means the beginning of the financial crisis. Would that be the scenario this time？
Elizabeth: I do not view the Fed’s consideration of reducing the Fed Funds Target Rate to signal a coming financial crisis. Rather the Fed is cautiously trying to keep the long expansion going. Since we do not have a problem now with inflation， the Fed can afford to stimulate the economy if needed.
In the past the interest rate reduction cycle has often meant that the economy had already turned down and the Fed was trying to limit the depth of the recession by stimulating borrowing. Counter-cyclical monetary policy is essential in a capitalistic country， because periodically free markets get too optimistic and then too pessimistic. While I emphasize below the importance of banks deciding on their loan customers for economic growth， it is nevertheless true that financial markets will get over extended and a financial crisis can occur. Then the private sector is too pessimistic and hoards money. To limit the recession， money must be added by the Central Bank so people can hold it without further cutting spending on consumption and investment.
JRJ: The U.S. economy has maintained a strong growth momentum during the Trump Administration. What do you think is the core driving force of U.S. economic growth? In the next decade, will the United States be able to maintain its leading position in the world by relying on its current core growth power?
Elizabeth: The U. S. has had a very long-term trend of good growth. I attribute that to waves of innovation， which in turn were encouraged by a free society with an emphasis from its beginning on public education and with immigration from around the world， so that new ways of thinking were often introduced. Freedom meant that people who made strong economic contributions were rewarded with high income， so incentives to innovate have been strong. In addition， U. S. banks lend to whomever they think will make a return on the loan. The government does not get involved in picking who gets the loans. Economic efficiency drives growth. Also， the tradition of banking here is to lend mostly to companies rather than to state and local governments. The private sector flourishes.
The current growth is largely from the tax changes of December 2017. Cutting the corporate tax rate and letting companies repatriate overseas profits without heavy taxes encouraged business investment in the U. S. Deregulation also helped （not so much by the specific rules that were changed but by the belief that the Government would not put in new regulations）. Companies and individuals have to think about the future political and economic environment when they commit new money.
JRJ: In the next decade， will the United States be able to maintain its leading position in the world by relying on its current core growth power？
Elizabeth: Sometime in the next decade there will be a recession. But the reoccurrence of growth in the U. S. is likely so long as our government does not try to direct capital or tax it too heavily （as some Democrats wish to do）. It is also important that the U. S. allows individuals with high human capital to immigrate to the U. S.， so that innovation remains strong.
I worry about some of President Trump’s comments on monetary policy. We need the Federal Reserve to remain independent to continue the role of counter-cyclical monetary policy to counter-act recessions with expansionary monetary policy and to tighten in booms to prevent inflation above 2%. The U. S. needs to continue the independent role for the Central Bank that in a recession it monetizes outstanding government debt， but does not direct which firms get loans. The firms should be free to pursue profits （within normal laws promoting fair and honest behaviors）. The government should not choose who gets the funds.
All countries make mistakes and the U. S. is no exception. Nevertheless， its democratic freedoms and private incentives to succeed have served it well and I hope will continue to do so in the future. I do worry if some of the left-wing Democrats gain political control that growth will suffer.
JRJ: China’s economic growth is slowing down. In order to cope with this situation， the Chinese government has taken a number of measures. Including the removal of capacity and leverage to enhance domestic demand and economic restructuring. At present， are the government’s measures effective？
Elizabeth: As you know， the Deng reforms increased private incentives and inspired Chinese entrepreneurs to create an awesome growth pattern for decades of near 10% growth. Slowing down a bit may just be that growth oPPortunities were stronger catching up than they can be as a world leader.
Since I am not an expert on Chinese government policy， I am not comfortable commenting on current policies.