供应链管理将是区块链技术发挥全部潜力的领域

出品人:巫云峰

监制:胡雯

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编辑:张熙

编辑:江平波

UI设计: 宋鹏

网页制作:盛维玮

  • Morgane Kimmich
嘉宾简介

Saiph Savage

西维吉尼亚大学金融学教授、卡内基梅隆大学计算机系客座教授

核心要点

区块链技术特点强、用处广

区块链技术可重塑与共享金融产业

加密货币优势明显 但仍有风险

01

区块链技术可重塑与共享金融产业 加密货币优势明显但仍有风险

区块链技术特点强、用处广

金融界:您认为未来五年商业服务将发生什么变化?您认为区块链技术对电子商务有什么影响?我们了解到,加密货币是区块链技术最早的应用之一。您认为这个应用程序完美地反映了区块链技术的特点吗?您认为区块链技术的其他应用场景包括哪些?

Saiph Savage:区块链技术的关键特征是分散性、一致性、不变性和问责性。诚然,加密货币是最早的应用,反映了区块链技术的大部分特点;然而,使用区块链技术可以比加密货币做的更多,并且可以广泛和深入地影响世界。区块链可以用于需要公共信任但现有技术无法完成的场景。例如,区块链技术可用于金融行业、供应链管理和反腐败。

金融服务是第一个探索区块链技术的行业。除了加密货币,区块链技术还可以用于其他金融服务,如外汇、保险和贷款。公共区块链和许可区块链都有了突破。对于被许可的区块链,银行试图联合起来创建区块链平台,以降低外汇和双边支付的运营费用。例如,高盛(Goldman Sachs)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)利用IBM授权的区块链来减少繁琐的双边支付业务。对于公共区块链,保险公司采用区块链技术来简化索赔流程。在西弗吉尼亚大学,我们与墨西哥国立自治大学(UNAM)和区块链加速器mousebelt合作,创建了一个新的平台covoir,使叛乱公司能够集成有关真实世界中发生的事情的实时信息,以改进保险索赔流程。我们的系统将人工和机器计算相结合,使其更加智能化,并且能够利用区块链之外的信息对保险单进行实时分布式决策。这种自动化可以降低保险公司的成本。

对于供应链管理,区块链技术可以展示其所有潜在能力。区块链仍然是一个永久、不可磨灭和不变的交易历史(记录)。区块链允许行业为供应链构建负责的系统。公司可以将物联网与区块链集成,记录生产步骤,如生产时间和物流温度。这些负责任的系统可以帮助各行业在客户收到质量差的产品时很容易地发现哪一个过程是错误的。例如,沃尔玛与IBM合作,要求其供应商记录生产和运输芒果时的水质、温度。

区块链不仅实现了商业用途,而且为社会公益做出了一定贡献。政府可以利用区块链技术打击腐败。例如,我们与来自墨西哥审计署首席审计办公室的Eber Betanzos博士合作,构建一个区块链合作平台,帮助公民和政府追踪政府官员如何使用社区发展预算。由于区块链的问责性,平台可以避免官员不负责任地挪用资金。

区块链技术可重塑与共享金融产业

金融界:区块链技术将如何影响金融行业?区块链是否可能重塑我们的金融服务行业?您认为我们从区块链技术在金融行业的大规模应用到现在有多长时间?

Saiph Savage:区块链技术在金融业中的作用可以分为两部分:B2B(企业对企业)和B2C(企业对企业)。实际上,区块链技术正在重塑B2B领域的金融产业。利用区块链技术,金融行业可以简化跨境支付的清算和结算流程。传统的跨境支付涉及不同的商业银行、不同国家的中央银行。清算和结算过程通常需要几天时间;但是,区块链可以在几分钟内减少这一过程。例如,VISA利用开源区块链项目(hyperledger fabric framework)提供一个改进的流程,以促进2019年可扩展、许可网络上的金融交易。该项目将覆盖30多个全球贸易通道,目标是到2019年底将市场扩大到90多个。

另一方面,区块链也可以共享B2C领域的金融产业。然而,这一变化并不是关于加密货币。它将更多地与“区块链技术”本身有关。由于政府监管和价格波动,加密货币在美国、墨西哥和中国等大多数国家都很难使用。除了加密货币,区块链的不变性和问责性允许银行为其客户创建数字身份。结合个人生物识别技术,个人可以拥有自己独特的数字身份。拥有数字身份可以帮助客户建立信用信誉,解决保险欺诈检测问题。但是,向公众部署大型应用程序需要很长时间。目前,最大的问题是用户采用率。人们如何信任它是广泛传播该技术的主要问题。只有18%的公共信托区块链技术超过大型金融机构。如果公众对系统的信任大于对区块链技术的信任,那么区块链应用就很难推广。如果没有政府的帮助,让最终客户广泛使用区块链金融B2C服务将需要5年多的时间。

加密货币优势明显 但仍有风险

金融界:对加密货币交易的有效监管是世界各国政府的共同问题,美国一些地区最近甚至呼吁禁止加密货币。您认为,与传统支付方式相比,加密货币交易的优势和风险是什么?是否需要严格的政府监管?

Saiph Savage:各国政府是否应该规范加密货币的使用仍然是一个争论。跨境交易和电子商务是使用加密货币的最佳方案。加密货币的优势在于即时结算,因为区块链技术的设计和实施可以消除第三方,减少跨境交易的过程。然而,加密货币的波动性太高,交易时间长,不适合日常消费(但仍比传统的跨境交易快),要普及还有很长的路要走。由于匿名性,加密货币也用于洗钱或非法交易。这就是各国政府呼吁禁止加密货币的主要原因。

然而,严格的监管往往导致加密货币交易向地下经济转移。交易仍然存在,但不能由政府监督。此外,区块链技术有巨大的潜力改变人们的生活。因此,我们认为政府不应该严格禁止使用加密货币,但他们必须要求交易所做KYC(了解你的客户),以避免洗钱。此外,为了促进区块链技术的发展,政府应建立一个环境,允许公司研究和测试他们的想法。例如,墨西哥推出了一个“FinTech沙盒”,鼓励创新,作为一个整合初创企业和金融技术公司的平台,可以与其他银行机构合作,产生新想法,打破运营计划,实现创新业务的新模式。

02

对话实录

以下为访谈实录:

The characteristics of blockchain are powerful and can be widely used

JRJ:What changes do you think will take place in business services in the following five years? What impact do you think the blockchain technology has on e-commerce? We understand that cryptocurrency is one of the earliest applications of block chain technology. Do you think this application perfectly reflects the characteristics of block chain technology? What other scenario applications of block chain technology do you think include?

Saiph Savage:The key characteristics of blockchain technology are decentralized, consensus, Immutability, and accountability. It is true that cryptocurrency is the earliest application and reflects most of the characteristics of blockchain technology; however, using blockchain technology can do more than cryptocurrency and can affect the world widely and deeply. Blockchains can be used for the scenario that needs public trust but cannot be completed by existing technology. For example, blockchain technology can be used in the financial industry, supply chain management, and anti-corruption.

Financial service is the first industry to explore blockchain technology. Beyond cryptocurrency, blockchain technology can be used in other financial services, such as foreign exchange, insurance, and loan. Both public blockchain and permissioned blockchain had a breakthrough. For permissioned blockchains, banks tried to union each other to create blockchain platforms to reduce the operation fee of foreign exchange and bilateral payments. For example, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley used IBM’s permissioned blockchain to reduce the cumbersome bilateral payments operations. For public blockchain, insurance companies adopt blockchain technology to streamline the claim process. At West Virginia University, in collaboration with the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) and the blockchain accelerator Mousebelt, we created a new platform Covoir, that empowers insurgence companies to integrate in real-time information about what is happening in the real world to improve the insurance claim process. Our system combines human and machine computation to make it more intelligent and be able to make real-time distributed decisions about an insurance policy using information outside the blockchains. This automation can reduce the cost of insurance companies.

For supply chain management, blockchain technology can present all its potential abilities. Blockchain remains a permanent, indelible, and unalterable history of transactions (records) . Blockchain allows industries to build accountable systems for the supply chain. Companies can integrate IoT with blockchain to record the production steps, such as production time and logistics temperature. These accountable systems help industries easily find out which process is wrong when customers receive poor quality products. For example, Walmart collaborates with IBM, asking its suppliers to record the water quality, temperature when plant and transport mango.

Blockchain, not only implement for commercial usage but also makes some contributions in social good. Governments can use blockchain technology to defeat corruption. For example, we collaborate with Dr. Eber Betanzos from the Chief Audit Office of Mexico-Auditoría Superior de la Federación, ASF to build a blockchain cooperation platform that helps citizens and government trace how the government officials use the budget of community development. Due to the accountability of blockchain, the platform can avoid the officials misappropriate the funding without responsibility.

Blockchain Technology can reshape and share financial Industries

JRJ:How will blockchain technology affect the financial industry? Is it possible that blockchain will reshape our financial service industry?How long do you think we are from the large-scale application of blockchain technology in the financial industry?

Saiph Savage:The effect of blockchain technology in the financial industry can be separated into two parts: B2B (business to business) and B2C (business to business). Actually, blockchain technology is reshaping the financial industries in the B2B area. Using blockchain technologies, financial industries can streamline the clearing and settlement process of cross-border payments. Traditional cross-border payment involves different commercial banks, central banks in different countries. The clearing and settlement process normally requires a few days; however, blockchains can reduce the process in a few minutes. For example, Visa utilizes open source blockchain project, Hyperledger Fabric framework, to provide an improved process to facilitate financial transactions on a scalable, permissioned network in 2019. The project will cover more than 30 global trade corridors, with an aim to expand to as many as 90 markets by the end of 2019.

On the other hand, blockchain also can share the financial industries in the B2C area. Yet, the change will not be about cryptocurrency. It will more relate to the “blockchain technology” itself. Due to government regulation and price fluctuation, the cryptocurrencies are hard to use in most of the countries, such as USA, Mexico, and China. More than cryptocurrency, the immutability and accountability of blockchain allow banks to create digital identities for their customers. Combine with personal biometrics, individuals can have their unique digital identities. Having a digital identity can help customers to build their credit reputation and solve the fraud detection problem in insurance. However, deploying a large-scale application to the public should take a long time. Currently, the biggest is user adoption. How people trust it is the main issue to spread the technology widely. Only 18% of public trust blockchain technology more than large financial institutions. If the public trust more in the system than in the blockchain technology, the blockchain applications are hard to promote. Without the government’s help, making the end customers widely using the blockchain financial B2C service would take more than 5 years.

The advantages of cryptocurrency are obvious but still risky

JRJ:Effective regulation of cryptocurrency trading is a common problem for governments around the world, with some parts of the United States recently even calling for a ban on cryptocurrencies. In your opinion, what are the advantages and risks of cryptocurrency transactions compared with traditional payment methods?Is strict government regulation necessary?

Saiph Savage:Whether governments should regular the cryptocurrency is still a debate. Cross-border transactions and e-commerce are the best scenarios for using cryptocurrency. The advantage of cryptocurrency is immediate settlements because blockchain technology can be designed and enforced to eliminate the third parties and reduce the process of cross-border transactions. However, it has a long way to go before becoming widespread because the volatility of cryptocurrency is too high, and the lengthy transaction times are not suitable for daily consumption (but it is still faster than traditional cross-border transactions). Because of anonymity, cryptocurrencies are also used for money laundering or illegal transactions. That’s the main reason why governments calling for a ban on cryptocurrency.

However, strictly regulations often lead to the cryptocurrency transactions move to the underground economy. The transactions are still there, but cannot be supervised by governments. Also, blockchain technology has huge potential to change people’s life. Thus, we think governments should not strictly ban the cryptocurrency, but they have to ask the exchange to do KYC (Know your customer) to avoid money laundering. Moreover, to facilitate the development of blockchain technology, governments should establish an environment that allows the company to research and test their ideas. For example, Mexico introduced a “fintech sandbox” to encourage innovation as a platform that integrates startups and financial technology companies, which can collaborate with other banking institutions to generate new ideas, break schemes of operation and achieve new models of innovative business.


 


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