区块链技术可重塑支付渠道 使落后国家地区获得红利

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  • Chris Wilmer
嘉宾简介

Chris Wilmer

匹兹堡大学工程学院教授

核心要点

区块链近期或只取代传统支付方式

美国保险业改变仍存在阻力

数据不会被篡改 双方信任成本降低

加密货币监管或存在一定空间

01

区块链技术可重塑支付渠道 使落后国家地区获得红利

区块链近期或只取代传统支付方式

金融界:您认为未来五年商业服务将发生什么变化?您认为区块链技术对电子商务有什么影响?

Chris Wilmer虽然许多努力都是为了将区块链技术用于保险、供应链管理、能源市场和其他复杂问题,但五年来最大的影响可能仅仅是取代传统的支付方式。还不足以做到大范围提到传统行业需求。

目前的支付手段,尤其是国际支付,还停留在传统支付方式的情形里。很多问题没有得以解决,(例如缓慢、受限的跨境支付,容易出现欺诈等)。举一个简单的例子,从许多发展中国家运往发达国家的消费品的缺乏可能主要是由于缺乏适当的支付渠道(例如,许多国家之间不提供Visa支付)。区块链效率的全面提高,将为没有恰当支付渠道的发展中国家提供更多的安全的支付渠道,从而在一定程度上促进消费,这也是去快点技术,通过发展自身便捷性,为生活带来改变的重要体现。

美国保险业改变仍存在阻力

金融界:您认为区块链技术对美国传统商业将带来什么样的改变?

Chris Wilmer这样的案例不胜枚举,美国作为保险业十分发达的国家,仍在对个人的寿险和意外险方面需要处理很多保险欺诈,可以说区块链对于保险行业可以带来的改变是革新性的。但这并不是短时间可以实现的改变,传统保险公司对于自己的商业模式有很大自信,同时这也涉及到很多改变的阻力。但支付领域的改变,例如带来更便捷的跨境支付,则可以更快的全面应用。这一定会影响到比特币和类似比特币的技术,即允许纯粹的点对点支付,在效率达到一定程度后会产生示范效应,尽管政府监管机构不喜欢这种支付方式,但却很难通过立法的方式阻拦。这样的支付便捷会提升电子商务的增长。

数据不会被篡改 双方信任成本降低

金融界:加密货币是区块链技术最早的应用之一。您认为这个加密货币这项应用是否反应了区块链技术的全部技术特点?

Chris Wilmer任何不相互信任的参与者之间共享的数据,都可以从区块链技术中受益。

例如,当涉及到患者数据时,医生和医疗保险提供者之间存在着自然的紧张关系。每一方都有动机篡改数据,以改变是否应该支付保险金。在医疗保险中有无数的欺诈案例,数据被追溯性篡改。使用区块链,双方(保险提供商和医生)放弃对数据的控制,但作为回报,他们能够相信数据没有被追溯性篡改。这是有区块链的本质决定的,无法篡改的信息可以自然的减少大量的信用背书需求,从而降低交易双方的信任成本。

加密货币监管或存在一定空间

金融界:对加密货币交易的有效监管是世界各国政府的共同问题,美国一些地区最近甚至呼吁禁止加密货币。您认为,与传统支付方式相比,加密货币交易的优势和风险是什么?是否需要严格的政府监管?

Chris Wilmer是否需要严格的政府监管是一个核心问题,我相信没有人真正知道答案。因为去中心化的特征本身就与监管有相矛盾的方面。

监管强调对于中心化系统“中心”的管理,而区块链提供的是底层的去中心化技术。各国央行对于国家之类的区块链应用目前仍较为敏感,因为如果国家范围内区块链用创造更新的货币,则这对已经建立的中性化货币体系会造成很大冲击。但如果我们讨论的是区块链创造的去中心化货币的全球货币在全球范围内的应用,则监管本身就很难讨论出意义。目前我们所看到的监管主要是国家范围内对于本国范围内对于通过法币交易加密货币的监管。对此,中国韩国都有很严格的监管态度,相比之下美国的宽松一些。

过去人们认为政府应该支配和控制宗教信仰,但现在大多数政府支持多元社会,每个人都可以自由地信仰和实践任何宗教(或没有宗教)。有些人认为,就像国家宗教消失一样,国家货币也会消失。

02

对话实录

JRJWhat changes do you think will take place in business services in the following five years? What impact do you think the blockchain technology has on e-commerce?、

Chris WilmerAlthough many efforts are being directed towards using blockchain technology for insurance, supply chain management, energy markets, and other complex problems, the greatest impact in five years may simply be replacing traditional payment methods. The challenges of traditional payment methods remain today (slow, constrained cross-border payments, prone to fraud). Bitcoin and Bitcoin-like technologies allow for purely peer-to-peer payments that, while disliked by government regulators, can nevertheless lead to tremendous growth in e-commerce. As a simple example, the lack of consumer goods shipped from many developing countries to developed countries may largely be due to the lack of appropriate payment channels (e.g., VISA payments are not offered between many pairs of countries).

JRJWe understand that cryptocurrency is one of the earliest applications of block chain technology. Do you think this application perfectly reflects the characteristics of block chain technology? What other scenario applications of block chain technology do you think include?

Chris WilmerAny shared database among participants who do not trust each other can benefit from blockchain technology. For example, there is a natural tension between doctors and medical insurance providers when it comes to patient data. Each side has incentives to tamper with the data to alter whether an insurance payment should be made or not. There are countless examples of fraud in medical insurance where data was retroactively tampered with. Using a blockchain, both parties (insurance provider and doctor) give up control of the data, but in return they are able to trust that it has not been tampered with retroactively.

JRJEffective regulation of cryptocurrency trading is a common problem for governments around the world, with some parts of the United States recently even calling for a ban on cryptocurrencies. In your opinion, what are the advantages and risks of cryptocurrency transactions compared with traditional payment methods?Is strict government regulation necessary?

Chris WilmerWhether strict government regulation is necessary is a central question, and I don't believe anyone really knows the answer. It was once believed that governments should dictate and control religious beliefs, but now most governments support pluralistic societies where everyone is free to believe and practice any religion (or no religion). Some people think that just as state religions went away, so will state currencies.

JRJDoes the digital identity of the blockchain bring difficulties for regulation? What do you think of the regulation in Blockchain Era?

Chris WilmerThe autonomy provided to individuals via blockchain technology makes regulation fundamentally more difficult, because it is easier to regulate a handful of institutions than millions of people. However, as long as humans have lived, they have come up with rules, policies, laws, and so on, and it will be no different in the so-called Blockchain Era. 

 


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